Monday, January 26, 2009

Now that the year has closed out and the bean counters are busy dressing up the figures business owners tremble. Not really, more like spending their last line of credit on a ski week-end! So, what's in a blog if you don't stick your neck out and be predictive ?

By March the financial closing should be over and the reality of the situation hits the fan. Expect lots of shop and business closures by May. The Spanish housing crisis (not sub-prime) continues to trickle down through the economy and local rumour has hotel booking down by 30% and car dealerships ready to close doors.

On the business front, corporates are selling off non-core business assests and typical home office and small venture funds are busy liquidating their assets in order to preserve or generate cash, all of which only adds to the general economic misery.

So is there any good news? Yes, providing you have cash or access to credit! Never have company and small business valuations been lower! Companies who now spent a few million of investor's money developing product or business are on offer at a 20 to 50 times discount !

Wow! Providing the money was well spent and the business model is sound this means that for 50,000 you can pick up a company whose intrinsic value is worth a couple of millions ! In two or three years we will be out of the crisis and providing the business survives you'll effectively have banked the millions of the previous investors who didn't stand by their guns and defend their investment decisions. Sounds too easy ? Maybe, but not too difficult or impossible either...

Hot topics for the next 6 months? Low profile astute acquisitions by those who were smart enough to pile the cash in good times and receivership administration, crisis management and asset disposals for the rest...

2 comments:

Jaksag said...

Heard that some small/medium sized companies are deciding to NOT PAY the IVA due on the 30th jan. They maintain the money will give them enough liquidity to make up for any bank overdraft/credit lines which have been withdrawn.
A friend due a big refund from Hacienda last July is still waiting-they prefer to pay interest to returning the original amount, multiplied by many thousands of such cases adds up...

Clem said...

Interesting, I woinder if they will extend that to the annual Company taxes. Mind you given the past year this is probably negative anyway :-)